Q3 for-sale-only vacancies

Friday, October 27. 2006

Q3 for-sale-only vacancies

For-sale-only housing vacancies as percentage of owner-occupied housing

As expected, for-sale-only housing vacancies for Q3 came in very high, again. As the astute commenter to my Q2 vacancy post noted, there seems to be a long-term uptrend in these data. However, the increase in this ratio the last three quarters has been quite something. While the series of year-over-year changes is messy, the chart below does indicate extremes.

Year-over-year change in for-sale-only vacancies as percentage of owner-occupied housing

Last quarter's increase was the largest on record. The last time this series saw similar acceleration was 79Q2-80Q3. Here's how the OFHEO's Housing Price Index, deflated by CPI less shelter, performed after that inventory build.

OFHEO Housing Price Index adjusted for inflation, 1975-1986

FD: short homebuilders

Posted by Wcw in Investing at 15:54 | Comments (2) | Trackbacks (5)

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Even yet more vacancy rates
For-sale-only and for-rent total vacancy rate, 1965-2006 I have been puzzling about for-sale-only vacancies. The chart above takes the broader view of looking at for-rent and for-sale-only vacancies as a rate of all owner-occupied, rented, and for-rent

Weblog: Wcw
Tracked: Oct 28, 20:33

Housing inventories
Existing home inventories and median sales prices, 2003-2006 The NAR released existing-home sales data for October today. Here is a quick-and-dirty chart of prices and inventories using their numbers. While I much prefer deflating the OFHEO's repeat-sa

Weblog: Wcw
Tracked: Nov 28, 16:16

House prices
Mortgage of index home at index rate, percentage ofmedian four-person family income, 1986-2006 The OFHEO released its housing price index for Q3 today. Repeating my Q1 analysis, I take a median-price home (per the NAR currently $221,000), apply the HPI

Weblog: Wcw
Tracked: Nov 30, 19:12

New home sales rate and population growth
Trailing-year new home sales, percentage of owner-occupied housingvs year-over-year civilian, noninstitutional population growth Months supply of new homes is high, but it was higher during the last residential housing peak in 1989. For-sale-only vacanc

Weblog: Wcw
Tracked: Jan 07, 04:38

Q4 vacancies
For-sale-only housing vacancies as percentage of owner-occupied housing Vacancies were even higher in Q4 than in Q3, itself no slouch. Given new-home sales still exceed likely household formation rates, I do not think the bottom is in. FD: short ho

Weblog: Wcw
Tracked: Jan 29, 19:21

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The spec buildout esp high-end may not only be out of reach rent-wise, but also geographically to those who can fund those rents closer to their work place?

Those spec houses this time around are owned by wealthier people who do not need to rent them, who can suffer the time it takes to sell rather than the thought that some perfect strangers were soiling the bathrooms?

As completions accrue and sales falter, this ratio vacancies/owner occupied housing stock climbs --not surprisingly, but maybe this is your point: a glistening measure of overhang when compared to the past 50yr performance?
The puzzle for me is: what is the puzzle for you? Why is the ordinary housing supply number not a satisfactory measure for you? Should I be fussier? I'm tryin...

#1 calmo on 2006-11-18 07:23 (Reply)

There are two things that puzzle me. One, why was the recent change in for-sale vacancies so extreme? Two, how can vacancies be at historic highs when months supply of new homes is high, but well shy of previous highs? Cf http://www.bignose.org/blog/index.php?/archives/116-New-home-sales-and-months-supply.html

It isn't that I'm surprised vacancies and months supply are up. It's that vacancies are up so hard, without months supply moving as much.

#2 wcw (Homepage) on 2006-11-18 17:01 (Reply)

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