TSI Freight

Transportation Services Index - Freight, year-over-year change

The Transportation Services Index is an index I didn't know until today, so I am not sure what to make of it. It comes from FY02 work by academics at SUNY Albany and at George Washington University. I honestly don't know whether I should pay more attention to the ATA's tonnage index or to the TSI Freight. The former just came out and showed a small bounce for February, though still down year-over-year. The latter seems to capture much the same information, though, and unlike the ATA's index is available courtesy of the taxpayer for free. On the other hand, it is "experimental" so buyer beware, I suppose.

The January level of 109.5 for the combined freight and passenger index was 1.2 percent lower than the January 2006 level, the second consecutive decline from January of the previous year (Table 4). The January 2007 level was 7.8 percent higher than the January level of the base year of 2000, but was 1.8 percent lower than the January 2005 level (Table 5).

TSI is a single seasonally adjusted index of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries, including railroad, air, truck, inland waterways, pipeline, and local transit.

The index includes historic data from 1990 to the present. The TSI is still under development and is considered experimental.

Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 0.6 Percent in January from December
Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 14. Mar. 2007

Eyeballing past data I'd say this remains consistent for now with my "soft landing" includes the word "landing" thesis. While I am cautious but optimistic, if this series and the others I track don't stabilize, I may have to revisit that conclusion.

FD: holding those synthetic puts overnight